Urban Growth Dynamics and LULC Transformation in Bikaner City: A Spatio-Temporal Geo-Spatial Analysis (2000–2024)

Abstract

The present research investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) in Bikaner district, Rajasthan, a semi-arid region experiencing rapid urban growth and shifting land-use patterns. Multi-temporal satellite datasets for the years 2000, 2014, and 2024 were processed and analyzed through supervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) algorithm in QGIS. Five major LULC categories—Built-up, Agricultural Land, Forest, Grazing/Wasteland, and Water Bodies—were delineated and quantified.The classification achieved an overall accuracy of 87.9% (2000), 89.6% (2014), and 91.2% (2024), with Kappa values above 0.85, indicating strong reliability of the results. The transition matrix revealed significant LULC conversions, particularly a sharp increase in Built-up area, which expanded from 2.8% (2000) to 6.5% (2014), and further to 11.2% (2024). This expansion occurred largely at the cost of agricultural land (declined by ~8.7%) and grazing/wasteland (declined by ~5.3%), reflecting both urban sprawl and land degradation processes.The findings underline that urbanization has emerged as the dominant driver of land cover change in Bikaner, where traditional agrarian landscapes are increasingly being replaced by built-up infrastructure and services. The orientation of urban expansion is concentrated along transport corridors, peri-urban fringes, and industrial clusters, consistent with growth patterns observed in other semi-arid cities of Rajasthan.These insights are crucial for sustainable urban planning, water resource management, and policy formulation in fragile arid and semi-arid environments, where unregulated expansion may exacerbate ecological stress and resource scarcity.